Maximum disturbance by the Coronavirus (New Mega Disruption)

The biggest problem in modern economies and the businesses that operate within them is none other than change.At a time when technology is booming, where data is changing rapidly and discoveries are almost daily, it is impossible to imagine, let alone demand, that things will remain the same.

In any case, we are living in a time of industry disruption worldwide.

Somewhere here appears a pandemic, an invisible and insidious enemy that has brought the health system to its knees in huge economies. Somewhere here the work from home, the teleworking, has become, with concise procedures, the basic model of employment. Somewhere here the travel needs are zeroed and the family must share the same space, which now becomes space for all uses. For rest and work, for sleep and play, for reading and relax.At the same time, of course, the denial of change is real and intense. We see it in society, the economy and even scientists. In recent days, the debate on the impact of the pandemic on the country’s economy has begun, and forecasts start from zero growth (BoG) and a mild 1-3% recession (YOOik), to reach an estimate of an impressive 5.3. % (if the lockdown lasts 4 months, analysts in “TO VIMA” 29/3/2020).But it is worth looking at the data from a different perspective. Not necessarily the right one, but definitely timely. Let’s look at the changes: In the Greek economy, inclusion will bring a change in habits. All research suggests that 21 days is enough! This change in some habits can lead to positive national savings (in terms of family income) for the first time in 17-18 years. At the same time, our Greece, the country that is world-renowned for its bureaucracy, is rapidly advancing on the scale of digital transformation. Not only the private sector, but also the public sector is being transformed in such a way that they can adapt and deliver the maximum. Third, teleworking, which involved 3-5% of employees, becomes the norm, increasing productivity, leisure and “connecting” the family again.

In the Greek economy, inclusion will bring a change in habits.

With this data, one could assume that, in the immediate aftermath of the health crisis, there will be a Mega-Disruption that will lead the economy to a new macroeconomic balance for which little can be predicted today. In this new equilibrium, some sectors will be hit hard, some will disappear – along with jobs – but some will be created and for others productivity will skyrocket along with an interesting reduction in non-wage costs.

There will be a Mega-Disruption that will lead the economy to a new macroeconomic balance for which little can be predicted today.

I would therefore be happy to place even a positive value on the predictions about economy made today, that is, the possibility that the BoG Governor’s prediction will prove from being very accurate to underestimate the reality by one percentage point, depending on the duration of the “quarantine”.

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